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The Hidden Risk in Buying a Half-Built Construction Project

September 7, 20266 min readInvestmentBank.com

An active construction project is the most mispriced asset on most M&A balance sheets, and buyers keep learning that at close. A half-finished job isn't a fixed line item you can drop into a working capital schedule. It's a live contract, a moving cost curve, a stack of lien rights, and a schedule other people control. Diligence teams that treat it like inventory, or like a finished asset, miss where the real risk sits: in the paper trail and the priority stack behind the drywall.

The pattern below shows up over and over in construction-heavy deals. Each assumption looks reasonable in a data room. Each one bleeds cash the week after signing.

The WIP Schedule Is Not a Financial Statement

Buyers routinely read the work-in-progress schedule as a summary of project health when it isn't one. It's a set of accounting choices about how to recognize revenue on jobs that are still being built, and those choices tend to tilt in whichever direction the seller finds convenient going into a process.

Front-loaded billings inflate current earnings by pulling recognition ahead of the work actually performed. Underestimated cost-to-complete hides losses that are already baked into a job, even though the schedule still shows a healthy margin. A serious WIP audit reconciles the schedule against subcontractor commitments, change order logs, and actual field progress — and doing that work can move a target's stated position by real money, not a rounding error.

Ask for the last four quarters of WIP snapshots side by side. Then track how estimates to complete changed on the same jobs, quarter over quarter. When the numbers keep drifting the wrong way, that's profit fade, and it says more about the seller's estimating discipline than any pitch deck will.

Figure 1 · Illustrative pattern
Profit fade: the gap between billed-to-date and cost-to-complete widens quarter over quarter
Q1 Estimate roughly tracks plan
Q2 Cost-to-complete edges up
Q3 Gap widens, billings still front-loaded
Q4 Margin already gone on paper it hasn't shown yet
Revised cost-to-complete Billed-to-date (held roughly flat)
Illustrative, not a specific project's data. The shape is the point: as the grey bar (revised cost-to-complete) keeps growing past the blue bar (billings recognized) quarter after quarter, the WIP schedule keeps reporting the job as on-plan right up until it isn't.

Lien Priority Doesn't Care When You Closed

The most common lender assumption is that a recorded mortgage or a perfected security interest sits ahead of unpaid trades. On an active project, that assumption is often wrong. Mechanic's lien rules vary widely by jurisdiction, and in many places a lien for work or materials relates back to the date construction first commenced on the site, not the date the lien was actually filed.

A claimant who shows up after closing can still leapfrog a construction loan that was recorded months earlier, simply because the underlying work started before that loan was ever put on record.

Figure 2 · Schematic
A lien filed after closing can still outrank a loan recorded before closing
Construction commencesPriority clock starts
Loan recordedLender assumes it's senior
Deal closesBuyer takes title
Lien filedWeeks after closing
Relation-back: in many jurisdictions the lien's priority date jumps back to step one — when construction commenced — putting it ahead of the loan recorded at step two, even though the lien itself wasn't filed until step four.
Illustrative, not measured. Because the priority date relates back to commencement rather than the filing date, a lender's assumption that its earlier-recorded loan is senior can be wrong, which is why unconditional waivers, estoppels, and title endorsements have to be collected as of the closing date, not inferred from the recording date.

Two practical implications follow for buyers and lenders, and a third sits underneath both of them:

  • Unconditional lien waivers. Collect current, signed waivers from every tier of subs and suppliers through the last pay application, not just the general contractor's certification.
  • Estoppel certificates. Get contractor and major-sub estoppels confirming amounts owed, pending change orders, and any claims in dispute as of the closing date.
  • Title endorsements. Price the deal assuming you'll need date-down endorsements and mechanic's lien coverage, and read the exceptions carefully.
Figure 3 · Closing checklist
Three documents that stand between a buyer and a leapfrogged priority stack
1Unconditional lien waivers

Current, signed waivers from every tier of subs and suppliers through the last pay application — not just the GC's certification.

2Estoppel certificates

Contractor and major-sub estoppels confirming amounts owed, pending change orders, and any claims in dispute as of closing.

3Title endorsements

Date-down endorsements and mechanic's lien coverage, priced into the deal, with the exceptions read carefully rather than skimmed.

None of these three is optional on an active project. Each one closes a different gap left by the relate-back rule shown in Figure 2.

Contract Terms Set the Ceiling on Recovery

Diligence checklists tend to treat construction contracts as background documents to be filed rather than read closely. They're the deal. Liquidated damages caps, mutual waivers of consequential damages, notice-of-claim windows, and limitations of liability decide what a delay is actually worth once litigation starts — regardless of what the delay looks like on a schedule.

A long delay on a project with a tight LD cap and a consequential damages waiver is a very different asset than the exact same delay sitting inside an uncapped contract. The gross exposure on paper and the exposure a buyer can actually recover can be worlds apart.

Figure 4 · Illustrative comparison
Gross delay exposure vs. what's actually recoverable under a capped contract
Gross exposure Full delay damages, uncapped
LD-capped exposure LD cap Bounded by the LD cap
+ consequential
damages waiver
Recovery ceiling in practice
Illustrative, not a specific contract's numbers. The point is structural: an LD cap and a mutual waiver of consequential damages don't just limit a future dispute, they set the recovery ceiling for a delay that has already happened — which is why the deal should be priced to that ceiling, not to the gross exposure.

This is where a construction attorney earns their keep during diligence, well before any dispute materializes. Have counsel read every active prime contract and the material subcontracts, flag the recovery ceilings in each one, and price the deal to those ceilings rather than to the gross exposure a delay might suggest on its face.

None of this argues for walking away from construction-heavy targets. It argues for reading the WIP schedule as an accounting document, the lien landscape as a priority problem that doesn't respect the closing date, and the contracts as the actual cap on what a bad outcome will cost. Buyers who price to those three things going in are the ones who aren't surprised the week after signing.

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